Background:

The Resilience in Pastoral Areas Activity (RIPA-North) is a multifaceted initiative undertaken in partnership between Mercy Corps and CARE. This program has a overarching objective to bolster the resilience capacities of households, markets, and governance institutions across the Somali, Afar, and Oromia regions. It seeks to address the underlying causes of vulnerability to various shocks and stresses, ultimately aiming to contribute to improved food security and inclusive economic growth for over 129,129 households across these three regions.

RIPA-North operates through four core components, each designed to target specific areas of vulnerability and enhance resilience. Additionally, a Crisis Modifier component has been incorporated into the program, providing supplemental funding resources to respond to anticipated or observed crises, thus safeguarding the development gains achieved through regular RIPA program activities. The program places a strong emphasis on gender mainstreaming, prioritizing women and youth, and aims to promote social cohesion through peace-focused activities and conflict-sensitive designs.

To assess the impact and effectiveness of RIPA-North, the program plans to conduct its third round of recurrent monitoring surveys (RMS III). These surveys will provide crucial insights into program progress, participant exposure to program activities, and the utilization of resilience capacities in the face of shocks and stresses. They are designed to follow the same individuals and households over time, capturing changes in their resilience and outcomes.

Triangle’s Assignment:

• Pre-Analysis Planning: The assessment will begin with a comprehensive pre-analysis plan (PAP). This planning phase will define the research questions, hypotheses, indicators, and variables. Special focus will be given to Propensity Score Matching (PSM) as the analytical approach.
• Data Preparation: The research team will create a data dictionary to document variable names, labels, and value labels. This dictionary will serve as a reference during data collection. Variables for analysis will be developed based on the data dictionary and pre-analysis plan, and the syntax will be documented in statistical software.
• Data Collection Oversight: While the consultant/firm will not directly collect data, they will provide advisory support to ensure that data collection standard operating procedures are adhered to. A local consultant will be responsible for managing field data collection, with a focus on quality and adherence to protocols.
• Analysis and Reporting: The research team will conduct an in-depth analysis of the data, following the pre-analysis plan and updating it as necessary. This phase will involve creating preliminary results presentations and a short summary report for stakeholders. A final report will be produced, covering key aspects, including methods, limitations, results, and interpretation.
• Sense-Making Workshop: A sense-making workshop will be conducted with RIPA teams in-country to jointly reflect on the research findings, facilitating dialogue and collective understanding of the results.