A comprehensive assessment strengthens protection efforts for Syrian refugees and host communities through data-driven insights and advocacy.

Background

Since 2011, the European Union (EU) has shifted from bilateral cooperation with the Syrian government to targeted humanitarian and development assistance. In response to the regime’s violent suppression of uprisings, the EU suspended collaborations and imposed sanctions under Council Regulation (EU) No 36/2012. Instead, it has focused on alleviating Syria’s humanitarian crisis while advocating for a political resolution. 

Today, 13.5 million Syrians – nearly half the population – require urgent aid, with six million children affected. Nearly 4.6 million people live in hard-to-reach areas, and 500,000 remain besieged. The war has set Syria’s development back four decades, leaving 85% of its population in poverty, reducing life expectancy by over 20 years, and pushing 1.75 million children out of school. The economy has contracted by 40% since 2011, deepening instability. 

As a member of the International Syria Support Group, the EU has provided over €3.8 billion in assistance, including €1.45 billion in humanitarian aid for food, shelter, water, and healthcare. Beyond emergency relief, non-humanitarian support aims to promote stability, strengthen resilience, and foster social cohesion.

The Challenge

Despite the EU’s significant investment, evaluating the long-term impact of its aid remains complex. The shifting conflict landscape requires adaptive programming that minimizes unintended harm while addressing root causes of instability. Key challenges include assessing whether EU-funded projects reduce violence, foster social cohesion, and effectively differentiate from other aid efforts. Ensuring conflict-sensitive approaches that do not exacerbate tensions is crucial for sustainable intervention.

Our Approach

Triangle’s assessment of EU-funded initiatives in Syria focused on five key areas: 

• Conflict Dynamics Analysis: Examined the evolving nature of the conflict, key actors, and socio-political factors shaping Syria’s instability. 
• Impact on Conflict Reduction: Evaluated whether EU assistance contributed to stability, including reductions in violence and strengthened peacebuilding efforts. 
• Promotion of Social Cohesion: Assessed how EU-funded initiatives bridge divides, build trust, and encourage dialogue within Syrian communities. 
• Value Added of EU Assistance: Analyzed how EU support stands out from other aid efforts and effectively addresses Syria’s unique challenges. 
• Conflict Sensitivity: Evaluated whether EU projects integrate conflict-sensitive approaches to mitigate risks and promote lasting peace. 

Results and Impact

Thre findings highlight the EU’s role in fostering stability and improving aid effectiveness: 

• Strengthened Social Cohesion: EU initiatives have helped bridge societal divides, fostering dialogue and reducing local tensions. 

• Conflict-Sensitive Programming: Evidence suggests that EU assistance has incorporated safeguards to prevent exacerbating conflict dynamics. 

• Enhanced Strategic Direction: Findings provide actionable recommendations to refine EU aid delivery for greater impact. 

Looking Ahead

Triangle continues to support conflict-sensitive policymaking and programming in Syria by evaluating international assistance and its broader implications. By collaborating with policymakers, humanitarian organizations, and donors, Triangle ensures aid efforts contribute to long-term resilience, stability, and peacebuilding for the Syrian people.