Background 

Mercy Corps’ Advocacy Creates Transformational Influence Validating Action for the Environment (ACTIVATE) programme was a two-year intervention funded by the United States Department of State’s Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor (DRL), implemented in Anbar, Baghdad, and Basra governorates. ACTIVATE sought to better enable communities and government decision-makers to collaboratively strengthen governance around pressing climate issues and reduce community tensions over natural resources. In a post-war Iraq that ranks among the countries most vulnerable to climate breakdown, the programme worked at the intersection of climate change adaptation, natural resource management, and social cohesion, responding to deep-seated trust deficits, inequality, and power imbalances that cut across rural and urban settings. Through an activism practicum, provincial Natural Resource Governance Networks, a national-level Policy Action Group, provincial policy dialogues, and community social projects, ACTIVATE built the capacity of Iraqi environmental activists and civil society leaders to lead democratic activism, advocacy, community organising, and conflict mitigation, and to influence policy and practice on environmental and natural resource issues.

Triangle’s Assignment

• Triangle was contracted under a Mercy Corps Master Service Agreement to design and deliver the external, summative final evaluation of the ACTIVATE programme. The evaluation was implemented between August and September 2023 and aimed to complement Mercy Corps’ internal end-line assessment by deepening understanding of programme outcomes and systems-level contributions. The work covered:
  • Assessing the quality and appropriateness of ACTIVATE interventions and the extent to which programme objectives and outcomes were achieved across Anbar, Baghdad, and Basra;
  • Examining how the programme contributed to sustainable social cohesion, climate change resilience, strengthened governance around environmental issues, and reduced community tensions over natural resources;
  • Analysing inclusivity in participant and social project selection, with particular attention to women, youth, minorities, and vulnerable groups, and identifying obstacles and good practices for meaningful participation;
  • Identifying factors affecting programme performance, resource use, and sustainability, as well as drawing out lessons learned and recommendations to inform future Mercy Corps climate change and social cohesion programming in Iraq and similar contexts.

Research Approach & Methodology 

• Resilience-Based Analytical Framework: Applied UNDP’s Community-Based Resilience Analysis (CoBRA) model as the core analytical framework to unpack complex, climate-related peace–conflict dynamics and trace how ACTIVATE may have contributed to individual and collective resilience in different local contexts.
• OECD DAC Criteria & Systems Focus: Structured the evaluation around OECD DAC criteria (including impact and appropriateness), with attention to early signs and prospects of long-term, systems-level change; Triangle also proposed exploring “Partnership” as a complementary criterion.
• Mixed-Methods Design: Employed a mixed-methods approach combining adaptive literature review, document analysis, key informant interviews (KIIs), focus group discussions (FGDs), and participant surveys to answer the evaluation questions without duplicating Mercy Corps’ internal end-line assessment.
• Structured Qualitative Inquiry: Conducted KIIs with Mercy Corps staff, Iraqi environmental activists and civil society leaders, representatives from trade unions, business and academia, government decision-makers, participants in provincial policy dialogues, members of Natural Resource Governance Networks, other relevant national and international actors, and community members to capture diverse perspectives on programme performance and change pathways.
• Targeted Group Discussions: Organised  FGDs (male and female groups in two governorates) using a purposive, stratified sampling frame disaggregated by location, gender, and programme output, with profiles refined jointly with Mercy Corps based on criteria such as age, education, income, disability, and minority affiliation.
• Participant Survey & Sampling: Implemented a participant survey with 171 respondents using purposive quota sampling and random area-based sampling across Anbar, Basra, and Baghdad, with a 50/50 gender split, designed to generate statistically representative findings for the population of 46,085 community members reached by ACTIVATE social projects.
• Phased Implementation & Rigorous Analysis: Delivered the evaluation in four phases: (I) inception, theory-of-change reconstruction and desk review; (II) tool design, testing, and finalisation; (III) field data collection and analysis using grounded theory for qualitative data and SPSS-based processing and cross-tabulation for quantitative data; and (IV) reporting and learning.
• Deliverables & Learning Products: Produced an inception report with full methodological design and tools, a final cleaned dataset, a comprehensive final evaluation report aligned with Mercy Corps’ reporting format, a slide deck with key findings and lessons learned, and an online presentation for Mercy Corps personnel and stakeholders to support reflection and future programme design.