A pioneering initiative to track and analyse social tensions in Lebanon, providing real-time insights to inform policy decisions and conflict prevention strategies.

Background 

Triangle, in collaboration with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), has been engaged in a significant real-time monitoring and mapping project aimed at assessing and understanding intra-Lebanese tensions. This project plays a crucial role in informing both national and local decision-makers about potential measures to prevent and mitigate community tensions in Lebanon. Furthermore, it provides valuable insights for more in-depth academic research themes. 

Given the evolving dynamics within Lebanon, particularly since October 2019, Triangle has taken on the task of redefining the concept of ‘social tensions’ in the context of Lebanon.  

The project, initially concluded in 2021, has since been renewed and expanded. Now in Phase III, it continues to monitor and categorize tensions in real time, analysing community interactions, political developments, and grassroots changes. The initiative actively maps areas with rising tensions and provides immediate analytical insights.

The Challenge 

Lebanon has experienced a significant escalation in tensions due to a combination of socio-economic and political crises. Traditional frameworks are no longer adequate to comprehend the multifaceted nature of these tensions. The project’s innovation lies in its development of a “Typology of Tension” that categorizes and defines these new vectors of social tension.

Our Approach 

Triangle created an agile system capable of providing timely reports on emerging tensions and a thorough triangulation of findings from multiple sources. The comprehensive methodology included real-time reporting, categorization, mapping of tensions, and geographical analysis of trends and hotspots.  

• Evolution of Intra-Lebanese Tensions: Tracked the development of social tensions over time, with a focus on political and economic shifts that have reshaped community relations. 
• Identifying Key Drivers of Tensions: Analysed the root causes of social discord, including political instability, economic distress, and service provision challenges, to inform targeted interventions. 
• Mapping Protests and Social Unrest: Documented patterns of protests, social movements, and violent incidents to identify trends and anticipate potential flashpoints. 
• Geographic and Community-Level Analysis: Examined localized variations in tensions and their distinct causes, enabling more precise conflict prevention efforts. 
• Real-Time Monitoring and Reporting: Implemented an agile system for real-time data collection, allowing for immediate updates and timely policy recommendations. 

Results and Impact 

Since 2020, Triangle has been at the forefront of real-time monitoring and mapping of intra-Lebanese tensions, now entering its fifth year. The project has become a linchpin of the social stability sector and a cornerstone of social cohesion programming in Lebanon. Its sustained impact extends beyond immediate conflict prevention, shaping how humanitarian and development actors respond to evolving security dynamics. 

• A Critical Tool for Policy and Programming: The insights generated have equipped national and local authorities with real-time, data-driven analyses to inform conflict prevention strategies and crisis response. 
• Regular Intelligence for Stability Monitoring: Triangle’s reports are published monthly and disseminated to key stakeholders, allowing actors to closely monitor the security and stability situation. This ensures timely adjustments to programming in response to emerging threats and shifts in social dynamics. 
• Enhanced Community Engagement: The project has deepened policymakers’ and humanitarian actors’ understanding of local grievances, enabling more targeted interventions that address root causes of tensions.
• Strengthened Research and Evidence-Based Approaches: The initiative has provided an empirical foundation for social cohesion programming and academic research, supporting ongoing efforts to mitigate Lebanon’s complex socio-political challenges. 

Looking Ahead 

The UNDP will advise on diverse deliverables, clear training materials, follow up on field implementation, validate the monitoring and evaluation system, and review and clear deliverables and payments. As Lebanon faces ongoing socio-political challenges, the need for real-time monitoring and informed decision-making remains paramount. Triangle continues to refine its methodologies, expand its data collection efforts, and collaborate with UNDP to ensure that insights from this initiative translate into meaningful policy interventions. By fostering a deeper understanding of social tensions, this project aims to contribute to a more stable and resilient Lebanon.