Lebanon’s economy has undergone a profound contraction since 2019. Although economic activity recovered somewhat in 2025, this did not amount to a restoration of the country’s productive capacity. Renewed conflict in 2026 has placed further pressure on jobs, markets and infrastructure, while the banking system remains severely constrained and businesses continue to operate amid weak institutions, limited access to finance and high levels of informality.

The question is therefore not simply which sectors are growing, but which forms of economic activity can create sustained value, productive employment and investment under Lebanon’s current conditions.

This requires looking at economic opportunities alongside the constraints that determine whether they can actually be realised, from finance and infrastructure to regulation, skills, market concentration and regional disparities. It also means distinguishing between activities that may be viable today and those that depend on wider reforms or improvements in the operating environment.

Triangle is conducting the Lebanon Economic Sector Analysis for the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH to help inform future German development cooperation in Lebanon.

The study will assess which sectors, value chains and wider economic interventions offer credible opportunities to support productive employment, private investment and greater economic resilience.

Rather than beginning with predetermined priority sectors, the research will examine a broad range of economic activities and assess them against both their economic potential and the conditions needed for that potential to be realised. This includes looking at:

• market demand, competitiveness and investment potential;
• the capacity to generate productive and inclusive employment;
• resilience to economic, political and security shocks;
• access to finance, infrastructure, skills and markets; and
• the regulatory, institutional and political economy conditions affecting implementation.

Triangle will also examine how these opportunities and constraints vary across Lebanon, and where wider reforms or cross-cutting support may be needed alongside sector-specific interventions.

The aim is to provide a practical basis for deciding not only where future support could have the greatest impact, but also which opportunities are not yet viable and what would need to change for them to become so.

Our Approach & Methodology

The study combines economic analysis, primary research and stakeholder engagement.

It will begin with a review of available evidence on Lebanon’s economy, labour market, financial system, trade, businesses and regional conditions. This will inform an initial longlist of sectors and value chains for further assessment.

Primary research will then test how opportunities and constraints play out in practice. This will include:

• a company survey;
• interviews with companies and business associations;
• consultations with public institutions, financial actors, researchers and development partners; and
• engagement with employees and jobseekers.

The research will be used to identify a smaller number of priority sectors or value chains for deeper analysis, alongside cross-cutting constraints that affect economic activity across sectors. The study will examine not only their growth and investment potential, but also the financing, regulatory, institutional, labour and infrastructure conditions that shape whether they can succeed.

These options will then be tested against different scenarios for Lebanon’s economic, governance and security trajectory to 2030, with an outlook to 2035. This will help distinguish opportunities that remain relevant under different conditions from those that depend on particular reforms, financing conditions or improvements in security.

The final analysis will translate the evidence into strategic options for future German development cooperation, including possible areas of intervention, implementation arrangements and the principal risks and conditions associated with each.