Lebanon’s economic and institutional crisis has touched almost every part of children’s lives. Poverty is rising, public services are strained, large numbers of children are out of school, and displacement linked to conflict continues to disrupt communities. These pressures don’t affect everyone equally, and some children and families are being left further behind than others.

As UNICEF prepares its next Country Programme Document, covering 2028 to 2032, it needs a clear picture of what the evidence actually says: what’s working, where the biggest gaps are, and what risks could shape the next five years.

Findings are organised around UNICEF’s Strategic Plan priorities and looked at through an equity lens, so it’s clear not just what’s happening but who is affected and how different barriers reinforce each other. The assessment also stress-tests UNICEF’s strategic thinking against risks and uncertainty, following UNICEF’s own guidance on risk-informed programming.

Findings are broken down by factors like age, sex, disability, nationality and location, so the assessment shows clearly who is being left behind and why, with gender, disability, social norms and mental health considered throughout rather than treated as separate add-ons. Each type of evidence is appraised using tools suited to it, and every finding carries a confidence rating so UNICEF knows how much weight it can bear.

A forward-looking element also considers how conditions in Lebanon might evolve over the next decade, helping translate the evidence into a small set of plausible scenarios that UNICEF can use to test its strategic options. Where relevant, findings are connected back to children’s rights under the Convention on the Rights of the Child and to relevant global development goals.

The assignment will produce an agreed methodology, a draft synthesis report reviewed together with UNICEF in a validation workshop, and a final package with the full report, an executive summary, and a briefing for senior decision-makers.