Socio-economic Monitoring of the Iran Crisis Transmission Effects on Children and Families in Lebanon
Background
The Iran/Strait of Hormuz crisis has introduced a new source of economic volatility for Lebanon, where households and public systems remain exposed to existing economic and social pressures.
The effects of the crisis are likely to extend beyond global energy and commodity markets. Higher energy, food and shipping costs could affect household purchasing power, employment and livelihoods, public services and social protection, with implications for children and families.
Understanding these transmission pathways requires looking beyond headline economic indicators to how external shocks are reflected in prices, household conditions and the capacity of public systems to respond.
Triangle’s Assignment
Triangle is supporting UNICEF Lebanon with a six-month socio-economic monitoring assignment to assess how the Strait of Hormuz crisis could transmit into Lebanon and affect children and families.
The monitoring will track developments across global markets and Lebanon’s economy, while examining their implications for households, public services and social protection. This includes looking at:
- energy, food and shipping costs and their transmission into Lebanon;
- household purchasing power, food affordability, employment and livelihoods;
- fiscal pressures, social protection coverage and transfer adequacy;
- disruptions to education, health, nutrition and other child-facing services; and
- emerging risks to child wellbeing, including food insecurity, nutrition, education and child protection.
Rather than focusing on macroeconomic forecasting, the assignment will translate selected global, national and household-level indicators into concise analysis of how emerging economic pressures may affect children, families and UNICEF-supported systems.
The aim is to provide a practical basis for deciding not only where future support could have the greatest impact, but also which opportunities are not yet viable and what would need to change for them to become so.
Research Approach & Methodology
The monitoring will use a child-sensitive economic transmission framework that traces how an external shock moves from global markets into Lebanon’s economy, household welfare and public systems, before considering potential risks for children.
The analysis will combine indicators across five levels:
- Global shock indicators, including oil, food, fertiliser and shipping costs;
- Lebanon’s macroeconomic transmission, including fuel prices, inflation, exchange rates and fiscal signals;
- Household and market stress, including food costs, income and labour-market pressures;
- Fiscal, social protection and public service pressures; and
- Child-facing vulnerability and outcome risks, including food insecurity, nutrition, education and child protection.
The work will begin with a baseline analysis to establish Lebanon’s exposure to the external shock and identify the indicators and transmission pathways most relevant for ongoing monitoring. This will be followed by five monthly monitoring bulletins tracking how risks evolve over time, alongside a limited number of ad hoc analyses of emerging issues.
Where data is incomplete, delayed or irregular, the analysis will distinguish between observed outcomes, directional signals and lower-confidence early warnings. This will allow the monitoring to identify emerging risks without treating early signals as established impacts.
Project:
Socio-economic Monitoring of the Iran Crisis Transmission Effects on Children and Families in Lebanon
Duration:
6 months (May-November 2026)