Background 

UNDP Yemen, in collaboration with the ILO, has commissioned a sub-national labour market and sector-wide value chain assessment under its Economic Recovery and Development (ERD) programme. The study responds to a severe data gap on the volume, structure, and composition of labour demand and on the organisation and performance of key value chains in a context marked by protracted conflict, high poverty, and widespread informality. It focuses on six priority governorates—Dharma, Hajjah and Ibb in Northern Yemen, and Marib, Taiz and Aden in the South—identified through UNDP Political Economy Profiles as core areas for future area-based programming. By analysing private-sector demand for skills, the structure and growth prospects of selected value chains, and the state of financial inclusion within surrounding economic clusters, the assessment aims to generate an evidence base that can guide ERD programming, inform national and sectoral policy, and support more coordinated interventions to expand livelihoods and income-generating opportunities. This multi-phase assignment is currently ongoing.

Triangle’s Assignment

Triangle’s assignment is to design and implement an integrated demand-side labour market assessment and sector-wide value chain analysis, including a dedicated financial inclusion study, across the six target governorates. The work covers:

• Conducting a skills-based labour market demand assessment that links employers’ current and short-term future skills needs to firm structures, value chains, and economic clusters;
• Carrying out a sector-wide value chain analysis of selected products and services, examining primary and support activities, employment and livelihoods contributions, bottlenecks, and growth and export prospects;
• Assessing demand for, and barriers to, financial inclusion (access to finance, microfinance and financial services) within the selected value chains and clusters, and simulating the impact of enhanced financial inclusion on value chain development and livelihoods.

Triangle will deliver two major analytical reports (Labour Market Demand Assessment and Value Chain Analysis with integrated financial inclusion), accompanied by executive summaries, presentations, and translated materials, and will support partners’ review and stakeholder validation processes.

Research Approach & Methodology 

• Mixed-Methods Design: Combines quantitative and qualitative approaches—desk and adaptive literature review, market observations, establishment survey, key informant interviews (KIIs), and focus group discussions (FGDs)—to address both the skills-based labour demand assessment and the sector-wide value chain analysis.
• Sub-national, Area-Based Focus: Covers Dharma, Hajjah and Ibb in Northern Yemen, and Marib, Taiz and Aden in Southern Yemen, aligning analysis with UNDP’s area-based ERD programming in priority locations identified through Political Economy Profiles.
• Demand-Side Labour Market Assessment: Analyses private-sector demand for skills by sector, value chain and location; links required skills to job functions and firm activities; and examines employers’ perceptions of labour supply, proficiency and productivity, as well as firms’ human resources practices (recruitment and on-the-job training).
• Sector-wide Value Chain & Cluster Analysis: Maps primary and support activities in selected value chains; assesses their contribution to employment and livelihoods, domestic value added, wage and capital content, labour intensity, growth and export potential; and identifies bottlenecks in surrounding economic clusters, including procedures from raw materials to final markets.
• Financial Inclusion Analysis: Assesses demand for and challenges related to access to finance, microfinance and financial services within targeted value chains and clusters; maps financial services (coverage, accessibility, cost and efficiency); and simulates how enhanced financial inclusion could support value chain growth and livelihoods generation.
• Market Systems & ILO Frameworks: Applies a market systems for development (MSD) lens and ILO standard labour market assessment and skills anticipation methodologies, examining how rules, supporting functions, technological change and supply-chain restructuring shape labour demand and value chain dynamics.
• Stakeholder Engagement & Case Study Methods: Uses KIIs and FGDs with private-sector actors, financial institutions, government counterparts, community leaders, youth and women’s groups, and business associations, following a case-study methodology with narrative, discourse and framework analysis to contextualise findings and fill data gaps.
• Phased Implementation, Validation & Policy Orientation: Implements a five-phase workplan—from inception, risk analysis and protocol development, through data collection and drafting, to final reporting and dissemination—producing draft and final reports, executive summaries and presentations, and facilitating internal and stakeholder validation to ensure recommendations are actionable for UNDP, ILO, national policymakers and development partners.